• After a period of decrease, Bolsonaro surpassed Lula and obtained the highest weekly volume of engagement since the beginning of March;
• The positive environmental agenda and the meeting with Elon Musk consolidated the president’s lead in volume of interactions. Attacks against the left wing in the context of police operations were a strategy to divide users into supporters of the police and supporters of criminals;
  Police operations and corruption associated with the presidential hopefuls Bolsonaro and Lula drove the debate about security. Inflation and unemployment were also highlights, with criticism to Bolsonaro;
• Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet, who are seen as potential representatives of the third way, did not take off on the networks. However, they are the presidential hopefuls with the most interactions in external groups on Twitter.

Security and the economy were the major topics associated with the debate about presidential hopefuls on the social networks. Those were the findings of a survey by the Department of Public Policy Analysis at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV DAPP), which identified more than 44.7 million interactions and views on the profiles, pages and channels of presidential hopefuls Jair Bolsonaro (PL), Lula (PT), Ciro Gomes (PDT), and Simone Tebet (MDB) on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube between May 9 and 31.

In the debate about security, Lula’s and Bolsonaro’s supporters exchanged accusations attempting to associate the pre-candidates with criminal activities. In the economic debate, Bolsonaro was blamed for the current inflation and unemployment rates. The president had moved closer to Lula in volume of interactions on the networks, and has now increased his lead over the other pre-candidates, using contents related to the environmental agenda such as Elon Musk’s visit to Brazil. Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet have the highest volume of interactions outside their support group (analysis “outside the bubble”).

General debate

Map of interactions in mentions to presidential hopefuls on Twitter
Period: May 9 to 31

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: FGV DAPP

Blue – 36.99% of profiles | 55.26% of interactions
Group driven by bloggers, alternative media channels, conservative digital influencers and right-wing politicians, including the presidential hopeful Jair Bolsonaro, mobilizing different topics, especially environmental and economic issues, and attacking the left wing. In environmental issues, the group mentioned the president’s alleged concern with preserving the Amazon region, emphasizing high percentages of environmental preservation in Brazil compared to the world. In addition, the posts also commented on the meeting between Jair Bolsonaro and Elon Musk, mentioning information from this meeting in a positive way, particularly regarding innovation, connectivity, investments and reinforcing the protection of the Amazon. Regarding the economy, President Jair Bolsonaro opposed the implementation of taxes in purchase applications such as Shopee, AliExpress, Shein, etc., emphasizing more monitoring and less taxation. Referring to the left wing, Jair Bolsonaro stated that the left has painted police officers in a demonic way while being gentle with criminals and drug traffickers.

Red – 37.53% of profiles | 32.96% of interactions
Group composed of bloggers, entertainment channels and politicians aligned ideologically with the left wing, with a highlight to the presidential hopeful Lula, indicating the priorities he would set, particularly in education, health care and infrastructure in each state. Profiles in this group expressed how they miss the previous administration and promised that the Brazilian people will be happy again, particularly regarding the end of hunger and the possibility of development. In addition, the posts commented on the elections in Colombia, asking that Colombians defend democracy and vote for the left-wing candidate, Gustavo Petro.

Pink – 10.95% of profiles | 2.81% of interactions
Group driven by profiles of common users, researchers and journalists, commenting about country singers and their use of public funds in millionaire contracts for concerts, and comparing their supposed “good conduct” to their personal lives, with cases of adultery and jokes involving animal violence. In addition, the posts criticized the posture of Ciro Gomes and wished for Lula’s return to the presidency, hoping that the former president will create more jobs and reduce the amount of digital influencers, in a critical and comical tone.

Orange – 6.86% of profiles | 7.44% of interactions
Group composed of communication channels and TV presenters as well as the presidential hopeful Ciro Gomes, criticizing and attacking Lula. The posts mentioned information regarding the involvement of Lula’s new marketing agent in a corruption scheme and claimed that the media publishes news favoring Lula and against Jair Bolsonaro, citing the case of the singer Gusttavo Lima. According to the posts, the media chose to cover the investigation involving the country singer because he has declared support for the current president. The posts also declared support for Ciro, arguing that Brazil needs to move away from the polarization between Bolsonaro and Lula, indicating a third way.

Analysis outside the bubble of presidential hopefuls on Twitter
Period: Period: May 9 to 31

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: FGV DAPP

The analysis outside the bubble showed how capable the pre-campaigns are of reaching new audiences on the platforms, that is, people outside their supporter network. The percentage inside the bubble corresponds to interactions coming from the group where a given presidential hopeful is, and the percentage outside the bubble corresponds to interactions coming from users inside the groups of other candidates or outside the analyzed groups.

• The presidential hopefuls Simone Tebet and Ciro Homes had the highest volume of interactions outside their cluster. The highest volume of interactions outside their bubbles comes from the cluster of the former president Lula. 11.1% of Tebet’s interactions outside her bubble and 7.3% of Ciro’s interactions outside his bubble originated in Lula’s cluster;
• 2% of Lula’s interactions came from the cluster formed by journalists, influencers and artists. Lula also obtains interactions coming from the clusters associated with Ciro Gomes and Bolsonaro, but they amount to only 0.7% of his interactions;
• President Jair Bolsonaro has the lowest volume of interactions outside his bubble, which means the majority of his content generates interactions among his supporters. He obtains interactions from the groups associated with Lula and Ciro, with 0.2% of his interactions from each.

Major tweets inside the groups in the map of interactions
Period: Period: May 9 to 31

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: FGV DAPP

Evolution of topics in the debate about the 2022 presidential election on Twitter
Period: May 9 to 31 | Aggregated per day

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: FGV DAPP

• The debate about security had the highest volume of mentions to presidential hopefuls on Twitter. The mentions focused on the presidential hopefuls Bolsonaro and Lula. Posts about a police operation in Vila Cruzeiro and the murder of a man in Sergipe generated a peak of interactions between May 25 and 26. Other highlights were posts associating both presidential hopefuls with crimes, accusing Lula of corruption and Bolsonaro of having connections with paramilitary groups;
• The increase in food prices, unemployment and fuel prices mobilized the economic debate associated with the presidential hopefuls. The highlights were posts blaming President Jair Bolsonaro for the increase in inflation and comments about Lula’s statement saying he would revoke the spending cap;
• In the debate about health care, President Bolsonaro was mentioned mostly in a negative way, with posts associating him with the pandemic and with misuse of public funds. In the debate about infrastructure, the highlights were the nomination of a new Minister of Mines and Energy and the privatization of Petrobras. The peak in the debate about eh environment on May 20 was related to Elon Musk’s visit to Brazil.

Interactions in the profiles of presidential hopefuls

Evolution of interactions in the profiles of presidential hopefuls on Twitter
Analysis period: May 9 to 29 | Aggregated per week

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: FGV DAPP

• After weeks of decrease in his number of interactions, President Jair Bolsonaro increased his lead from the other candidates on Twitter. Elon Musk’s visit to Brazil and the comments made by the President praising the actions of the police in the Vila Cruzeiro massacre drove interactions in his profile;
• The former president Lula continued to drop and the distance between him and President Bolsonaro increased in terms of volume of interactions on Twitter. His profile continued using the strategy of posting photos with artists and commenting on personal topics to expand his popularity on the platform. The contents with the most highlight in the former president’s profile were the photos of his marriage with the sociologist Janja and with artists;
• The presidential hopeful Ciro Gomes remained distant from the two candidates in volume of interactions on the platform. His highlights were posts about the increase in fuel prices, criticizing the Petrobras administration and differentiating himself from Lula and Bolsonaro.

Facebook

Evolution of interactions in the profiles of presidential hopefuls on Facebook
Analysis period: May 9 to 29 | Aggregated per week

Source: Facebook | Elaborated by: FGV DAPP

• President Jair Bolsonaro remained in the lead in number of interactions on the platform and distant from the other presidential hopefuls. His major highlights included a video showing the president watching the country singers Mateus and Cristiano, a post lamenting the death of the Brazilian Jesse Koz and his dog, and posts related to Elon Musk’s visit to Brazil;
• The former president Lula saw a drop in his number of interactions on Facebook. His marriage with the sociologist Janja generated a high volume of interactions. His other highlights were videos of pre-campaign events;
• The other presidential hopefuls continued to have a low volume of interactions. Some highlights were Ciro Gomes’s criticism of Bolsonaro and Lula and Simone Tebet’s statement about MDB, emphasizing her political support.

Instagram

Evolution of interactions in the profiles of presidential hopefuls on Instagram
Analysis period: May 9 to 29 | Aggregated per week

Source: Instagram | Elaborated by: FGV DAPP

• After a period of decrease, President Jair Bolsonaro surpassed the former president Lula and had the highest weekly volume of interactions since the beginning of March. Elon Musk’s visit was also a highlight in the president’s profile, as wel as a post about the death of a Brazilian man and his dog;
• Former president Lula saw an increase in interactions in the beginning of the month, prompted by photos of his marriage and with artists such as Djonga, Zeca Pagodinho and Caetano Veloso. However, the content showing his campaign schedule and proposals did not obtain as many interactions, and his engagement dropped in the second half of the month;
• On Instagram, Ciro Gomes also criticized Lula and Bosonaro and commented on a live interview with Gregório Duvivier, publishing portions of the conversation with the comedian. Simone Tebet posted about her supporters and pre-campaign activities.

YouTube

Evolution of interactions in the profiles of presidential hopefuls on YouTube
Analysis period: May 9 to 29 | Aggregated per week

Source: YouTube | Elaborated by: FGV DAPP

• The presidential hopeful Ciro Gomes recovered the lead in number of interactions on YouTube, even though he was close to the other candidates by the end of the month. His peak of interactions was generated by the live interview with Gregório Duvivier, after the comedian aired an episode in his program asking Ciro’s electors to vote for Lula. Ciro’s videos commenting on Duvivier’s program and interviews given to communication outlets also performed well on the platform;
• President Jair Bolsonaro’s live broadcasts ensured a stable number of interactions on the platform. Official government videos publishing works and programs were also a highlight in the president’s channel;
• A video showing the blessing of the marriage between Lula and Janja generated a peak of interactions that helped the former president surpass Bolsonaro. However, Lula dropped in the end of the month, approaching Simobe Tebet, who remained stable.