01 Oct

On the eve of election day, Lula consolidates non-aligned supporters and shows advantage

Updated 11 de October, 2022 at 5:45 pm

  • Declarations of vote for the former president Lula and expectations of a possible decision in the first round mark the posts of profiles from the progressive field, which leads in profiles and interactions;
  • The mentions of candidates Jair Bolsonaro and Lula oscillate together in the days preceding the election; today the mentions of Lula emphasize the useful vote, with emphasis on the trend “Lula presidente amanhã” (Lula president tomorrow);
  • Criticism towards Bolsonaro’s campaign strategy stands out in the mentions of the president;
  • In the wake of celebrity voting declarations, president Jair Bolsonaro and his supporters publicize support from far-right Chilean leadership, soccer players, and country singers on the eve of the first round.


The monitoring of the networks throughout the campaign consolidated the dispute around the two main presidential candidates and set the tone for the entire political debate in the 2022 elections. Despite the advantage of president Jair Bolsonaro, former president Lula now in the last stretch, with the support of profiles from the progressive field, leads in the volume of profiles and interactions on Twitter, is what shows the survey of the School of Communication of FGV, which analyzed more than 2 million tweets about the 2022 elections, from September 30 to 3 p.m. on October 1.


Map of interactions – Twitter

Map of interactions in mentions to presidential candidates in the debate about the elections on Twitter
Period: September 30 to October 1



Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV


Non-aligned influencers and anti-Bolsonarists (Pink) – 38.93% of profiles | 18.16% of interactions
Driven by profiles of influencers and ordinary users, this group directs criticism towards Jair Bolsonaro’s government. The posts reflect Neymar’s statement of support for the current president, criticizing the soccer player for supporting Bolsonaro with arguments ranging from his peripheral origin to the fact that he is now a millionaire and lives abroad. In addition, posts, in a tone of irony and joking, deny information used by Bolsonaro as achievements of his government, for example: creation of the Paulo Gustavo law, Aldir Blanc law, creation of the PIX and the emergency aid. The group also echoes suspicions of corruption, involvement with militias, and the decrees imposing 100-year secrecy on government actions.

Left wing (Red) – 22.52% of profiles | 28.83% of interactions
Driven, above all, by candidate Lula’s profile, @LulaOficial, this group reflects moments that were part of the presidential debate, broadcasted by Globo. The posts show the agendas defended by the candidate, highlighting the defense of the Quota Law – as a historical reparation for years of slavery, more than 350 years. In addition, the posts reprimand the accusations of the candidate Father Kelmon and highlight the partnership in the debate between the Father and Bolsonaro against Lula.

Right wing (Blue) – 22.96% of profiles | 45.07% of interactions
Led by Jair Bolsonaro’s profile, @jairbolsonaro, this group broadcasts, in an accusatory tone, information warning about the possible support of Globo TV channel to candidate Lula. Video of Chilean political leader, José Antonio Kast Rist, of the Republican Party and known as the “Chilean Bolsonaro,” is widely posted on Jair Bolsonaro’s profile. The president’s supporters also highlight the support of soccer players and sertanejo singers. In addition, posts declare that candidate Jair Bolsonaro is the possibility for Brazil to follow the path of order, prosperity, and freedom.

Third way – miscellaneous (Orange) – 4,63% of profiles | 5,00 of interactions
Led by profiles of politicians, such as Ciro Gomes and former judge Sergio Moro – @cirogomes and @SF_Moro, this group accuses candidate Lula of disseminating untrue information about his innocence, and also of continuing to engage in corruption crimes, taking up and citing the Lava Jato operation. In addition, posts point to candidate Ciro Gomes as a possible third way for the 2022 presidential elections, highlighting the lack of proposals from Lula and Bolsonaro and the political conflicts in which candidates Lula and Jair Bolsonaro are involved.

Major tweets inside the groups in the map of interactions on Twitter
Period: September 30 to October 1


Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV



Evolution of the political fields on Twitter

The analysis of political fields is done from the network of relationships established from retweets. The search rule used seeks to collect the publications that made mentions of the candidates for the presidency of Brazil in 2022. The groups are formed from the retweet network, which brings together profiles that have retweeted the same profiles. This technique allows the identification of sets of profiles that are later classified according to ideological fields.

Evolution of the volume of profiles in Lula and Bolsonaro political fields on Twitter
Period: September 30 to October 1 | Aggregated by hour


Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV


Presidential candidates on Twitter

Mentions to the presidential candidates on Twitter
Period: September 30 to October 1


Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV


  • Repercussions of Rede Globo’s presidential debate have increased the volume of mentions of the presidential candidates. Jair Bolsonaro and Lula, who have been far apart from the others throughout the campaign period, have jointly oscillated in the volume of mentions in the days leading up to the first round;
  • In the last televised debate, former president Lula led in the number of mentions, excerpts from his speeches were widely reproduced, with emphasis on the themes of racism and religion. The clashes with candidate Father Kelmon also stirred up the debate around the former president. Today, posts advocating a useful vote for PT’s candidate and a “Lula presidente amanhã” (Lula president tomorrow) trend feature prominently;
  • President Jair Bolsonaro, who leads in the volume of mentions, received criticism for his posture in the debate on Rede Globo, considered cowardly for his fallacious allegations and for avoiding direct confrontation with Lula. In the last few hours, criticism has been directed at the tone of his campaign strategy, and at his persistence with the discourse of fraud at the polls.


Word cloud about Election 2022
Period: September 30 to October 1



Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV


  • Declarations of vote for candidate Lula and early celebrations of victory still in the first round, through supporters raising the phrase Lula President Tomorrow mobilized Twitter on the eve of the first round of elections and sharing messages from celebrities who declared their support for the candidate;
  • The participation of presidential candidate Father Kelmon in the Globo debate was also highlighted and divided users. While some users celebrated the candidate’s participation and said that he “finished” Lula and showed how people should treat an ex-convict, most of the profiles used humor to criticize Kelmon, calling the candidate an orange, also evaluating that Bolsonaro’s strategy didn’t work out and reminding that Kelmon is a candidate because Roberto Jefferson was prevented from running in the elections;
  • The support of Neymar and other soccer players also mobilized mentions of president Jair Bolsonaro, through requests for votes and the mobilization of a religiously oriented speech to highlight the importance of the president’s victory for the Brazilian people and his personal qualities;
  • Ciro Gomes’ supporters also used social networks on the eve of the elections to declare their vote for the candidate and explain why they believe he is the best alternative, highlighting “polarization” as the country’s biggest problem;
  • There are also mentions of Simone Tebet, who was praised for her performance in the debate and led users to consider the possibility of her surpassing Ciro Gomes in the number of votes.