08 Jul

“Kamikaz Bill” hardens the debate and lights an alert on fiscal and institutional risk

Updated 14 de July, 2022 at 2:42 pm

  • Opposition group consolidates at 70% among profiles and interactions, with opportunistic legislation and fiscal responsibility among the major points of criticism against the government’s bill near the elections;
  • Pro-government group focuses on a “positive agenda”; however, social aid has no impact in increasing support.

With the elections approaching, the so-called “Kamikaze Bill”, which provides for the increase of social aid and the declaration of state of emergency, has prompted discussion and concerns regarding topics such as fiscal responsibility and electoral legislation. A survey by the Department of Public Policy Analysis at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV DAPP) showed that there were more than 240 thousand mentions to that topic on Twitter between June 28 and July 7.


Evolution of posts in the debate about the 2022 “Kamikaze Bill”
Period: June 28 to July 7

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: FGV DAPP

On June 29 at night, when the bill was presented by Senator Fernando Bezerra (MDB-PE), there were more than 14 thousand mentions to the topic. The discussion remained intense throughout the following day with the approval of the bill at the Senate (June 30), reaching more than 100 thousand mentions. On July 7, the debate increased once again with the approval of the bill by a special commission at the Chamber of Deputies and the decision by the president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), to postpone the plenary vote, which was to happen next Tuesday (July 12).

Map of interactions in the debate about the “Kamikaze Bill”
Period: June 28 to July 7

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: FGV DAPP

Left Wing ‒ 39.34% of profiles | 52.80% of interactions
Group mobilized by left-wing politicians, journalists, bloggers and social activists critical of the federal government, expressing concern about the potential consequences of the proposed bill for the public budget in the future. Indicating the possibility of budget reduction in the country’s accounts, the posts saw this governmental measure, taken in an election year, as a strategy to win votes – which could ultimately be an attempt by Jair Bolsonaro (PL) to stage a “coup” and stay in the presidency. Some profiles also suggested that, if the proposal had been presented by previous governments, the reaction by the public and the media would have been more intense. Groups of digital activists highlighted the need for protests if the bill advances in Congress.

Right Wing ‒ 29.63% of profiles | 23.29% of interactions
Group driven by right-wing politicians, bloggers and conservative digital influencers, who commented on the approval at the Senate of the basic text of the bill that decrees a state of emergency to temporarily increase the values of Auxílio Brasil and Vale-Gás, create aid for truck drivers and taxi drivers, among other social benefits. In addition, the posts criticized opposition congressmen, particularly PT representatives, for celebrating the approval of billions of reais for Culture but trying to prevent the approval of a bill that could potentially benefit the poor population in Brazil.

Anti-Government Influencers ‒ 14.78% of profiles | 12.05% of interactions
Group composed of bloggers, digital influencers and comic profiles that oppose the federal government, who saw the approval of the bill as a strategy by Jair Bolsonaro to win votes and try to ensure his permanence in the presidency of Brazil. The posts also highlighted the legal creativity of the pro-government group for processing of this bill, calling attention to the fact that the Brazilian people have been experiencing difficulties with hunger and constant increases in fuel price for some time, but the president only decided to invest in social programs in the election year.

Third Way ‒ 13.28% of profiles | 10.92% of interactions
Group composed of profiles of journalists, communication channels and politicians who oppose the federal government,who commented on the supposed harm that this bill could bring to Brazil, denouncing it as a “fiscal bomb” that violates the Fiscal Responsibility Law and breaks the spending cap. In addition, the posts criticized the first version of the “Kamikaze Bill” proposed to the Senate for declaring an “artificial” state of emergency that could favor measures that harm the electoral process and provide alternatives for the Brazilian president to use the Treasury to remain in the power.


Major tweets per group in the debate about the “Kamikaze Bill”
Period: June 28 to July 7

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: FGV DAPP