• Opposition to the current mayor engages profiles connected to the institutional politics and users with low engagement to politics, isolating the group supporting the current mayor;
• On Facebook, synchronized attacks target Paes, and the left and center-wing union leads the front against the current mayor;
• On Twitter, 78% of profiles have great resistance to Crivella and show affinity to Eduardo Paes. 14% support the current mayor and attack Paes.

A monitoring carried out by the Department of Public Policy Analysis of Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV DAPP) has identified around 335 thousand tweets about the election for City Hall in the city of Rio de Janeiro between 5 pm, November 15th to 9 am, November 24th. More than 158 thousand profiles engaged in the debate, being divided in three big groups.

Map of Interactions about the Election for City Hall in Rio de Janeiro
From 5 pm in November 15th to 9 am in November 24th

Source: Twitter | Elaboration: FGV DAPP

The largest of them (in yellow) mobilized  44.2% of profiles and gathered 30.3% of interactions, composed of profiles that had already been debating about the Rio elections since the first round, such as from influencers Felipe Neto, Mariliz Pereira Jorge, and Gregório Duvivier, or from profiles connected to the institutional politics in Rio, such as the candidates to City Hall Benedita da Silva (PT) and Renata Souza (PSOL), the Federal Congressman Marcelo Freixo (PSOL-RJ) and the former Sao Paulo Mayor Fernando Haddad (PT). The tweets criticized the possibility of the reelection of Marcelo Crivella and hesitantly declared support to Eduardo Paes.

The second largest group (in pink), with 33.5% of profiles, was also composed of users who published tweets that criticized Crivella being in the second round. Differently from the previous group, however, this one had the presence of young profiles who shared humorous comments and memes to criticize the Republicanos candidate. Despite gathering a smaller number of profiles, this group gathered the largest number of interactions, with 42.5% from the retweets about the debate. The singer Anitta was the third largest influencer in this group.

Finally, the third group (in blue) had only 13.7% of profiles and 20.2% of interactions in the debate. It was composed of politicians and influencers aligned with the right wing, some of them connected to the federal government. The Congressmen Márcio Labre (PSL-RJ) and Otoni de Paula (PSC-RJ) had great highlight in the defense of the reelection of Marcelo Crivella. There was, however, predominant attacks to the candidacy of Eduardo Paes, with tweets that commented on Crivella’s declaration about the supposed deal between Paes and PSOL for the Secretary of Education, and they also criticized Rede Globo and other left-wing parties.

On Facebook, Groups that Support Crivella Mobilize against Paes, and Alliance of the Left with the Center Wing Leads the Front Against the Current Mayor

Between November 15th and 24th, around 32 thousand posts were published referring to the dispute for City Hall in Rio de Janeiro. These posts were published by 8.4 thousand different public pages and groups, reaching 3.9 million of total interactions, which is the sum of likes, comments, shares and reactions.

We can observe a scenario in which the left wing, being unable to bring a candidate to the second round, chooses to strongly support the candidacy of the center wing, isolating and exploring the contradictions of the current mayor’s group, who basically counts on the support of popular right-wing sympathizers and Neopentecostal segments. This scenario might become a potential proxy for future races.

The volume of interactions grew between November 15th and 19th, period in which politicians and celebrities started to declare support to the candidacy of Eduardo Paes, while the campaign of Crivella, mainly through the profile of Federal Congressman Otoni de Paula (PSC-RJ), attacked Paes.

Evolution of Engagement in Posts about the Dispute for City Hall in Rio de Janeiro on Facebook
From 5 pm in November 15th to 4 pm in November 24th

Source: Facebook | Elaboration: FGV DAPP

On November 16th, the main posts declaring votes in the second round were published. A few highlights with the most interactions were the declarations of support to Paes made by celebrities such as the singer Tico Santa Cruz and actor Bruno Gagliasso. The rejection of the singer Anitta to Crivella being in the second round was also mentioned, but in a post from the Federal Congressman Otoni de Paula (PSC-RJ) criticizing the singer. Among the political leaders from the left wing, the Federal Congressman Alessandro Molon (PSB-RJ) recommended his supporters to not vote for Crivella, and the Federal Congresspeople Marcelo Freixo (RJ) and Sâmia Bomfim (SP) celebrated the poor performance of candidates supported by Jair Bolsonaro, with remarks about the situation of Crivella being in the second round.

Now, on November 19th, the peak of the period was observed, with more than 770 thousand interactions and 5.7 thousand posts. In the morning of that day, the Mayor Marcelo Crivella participated in a live chat with the profile of Otoni de Paula, in which he accused PSOL of making a deal with Paes to control the Secretary of Education, with the goal of implementing policies that encourage pedophilia. This video currently gathers around 107 thousand views, being shared 611 times by 337 different public pages and groups. The video is still active in the profile of Otoni de Paula.

The video boosted the movement that had already started since November 16th, leading the left wing to heavily mobilize against Crivella. Still on November 19th, several political actors from the left made posts in response to Crivella’s accusations. The most interacted post in the day was the video response from Marcelo Freixo, which gathered 27 thousand interactions and 201 thousand views. Besides Freixo, the Federal Congressman David Miranda (PSOL), City Councilor Tarcísio Motta (PSOL) and candidate to the Chamber of City Councilors in Rio de Janeiro Élika Takimoto (PT) also made posts mocking Crivella’s accusation, reaching up to around 20 thousand interactions.

Top 10 Pages and Public Groups with Most Interactions about the Dispute for City Hall in Rio de Janeiro
From 5 pm in November 15th to 4 pm in November 24th

Source: Facebook | Elaboration: FGV DAPP

Among the most engaged ten pages, a few highlights were the Marcelo Crivella’s and Otoni de Paula’s, with more than 350 thousand interactions. Aligned with Crivella, there were also the fan page Crivella Boladão and press page Jornal da Cidade Online, which gather around 179 thousand interactions. Eduardo Paes’ official Facebook page and the group Eduardo Paes – Por um Rio Melhor dedicated to his campaign gathered 179 thousand interactions. Finally, a few highlights were also the political profiles from PSOL, Marcelo Freixo and Tarcísio Motta, who gathered 171 thousand interactions while campaigning against Crivella. 

Regarding the post count, from the 50 pages that published the most, 30 were dedicated to the defense of the reelection of Marcelo Crivella or in support to the President Jair Bolsonaro, and 7 made reference to the campaign of Eduardo Paes or to the left wing in general. This number shows the engagement of the groups who support either the President or Crivella being in the second round.