• Lula’s support group gained the support of artists, representing more than 45% of the profiles on Twitter; Bolsonaro’s supporters account for a little over 27% of profiles. Group formed around Ciro moves closer to center-right actors;
• Bolsonaro and Lula were the most mentioned presidential hopefuls throughout the campaign, with a peak of mentions during the Globo debate; Ciro and Simone obtained the highest peaks in the debate organized by Band;
• Security/Corruption was the leading topic in the first round, marked by a hostile tone and accusations between political groups; unemployment and fuels drove the debate on the Economy, making it the second most relevant topic.

After a long hegemonic period of Jair Bolsonaro and his political group in the digital public debate, the first round of the 2022 elections was marked by a balance between opposing groups, with a highlight to the mobilization around former president Lula’s campaign. Those were the findings of a survey by the FGV School of Communication, which identified 79.9 million tweets about the 2022 elections between August 16 and September 29.

The presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro had the most interactions on his profiles on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram. In turn, Lula led in video networks such as YouTube and TikTok. Regarding the political fields, Lula had an advantage on Twitter between September 27 and 29, with the approximation of a group formed by artists and influencers opposed to Bolsonaro’s campaign. On Facebook, a network that is usually dominated by the PL candidate, there was a tie in the number of profiles in the groups supporting Bolsonaro and Lula.

 

Map of interactions – Twitter

 

Map of interactions in mentions to presidential candidates in the debate about the elections on Twitter
Period: September 27 to 29

 

 

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV

 

Anti-Bolsonaro influencers (Pink) 23.52% of profiles | 12.11% of interactions
Group formed by influencers, artists and entertainment profiles opposing President Jair Bolsonaro. Despite the low volume of interactions, the group included several profiles associated with the left-wing cluster. The group criticized Neymar’s declaration of support for President Bolsonaro and commented on the Globo debate using memes and ironic remarks. The profiles also denounced the cases of political violence against PT supporters, blaming Bolsonaro for the violence.

Left wing (Red) – 22.18% of profiles | 31.54% of interactions
Group composed of communication vehicles, professors, political figures and influencers in the left wing, focused around the profile of former president Lula and commenting on a few of his statements during the television debate on Rede Globo. The topics included the Quotas Law and the 100-year secrecy decreed by Bolsonaro over certain documents. Users in the group were looking forward to the election, with people eager to vote for Lula. There were also reports claiming that directors of the corporate group IMETAME had been coercing employees to vote for Bolsonaro, in addition to alleged cases of violence by government supporters against PT supporters.

Right wing (Blue) – 27.21% of profiles | 42.1% of interactions
Group formed by right-wing profiles and influencers supporting Bolsonaro. The content was focused on attempting to criminalize Lula by distorting opinions related to behavior and security topics. The declarations of support by Neymar and some country singers for Bolsonaro also stood out and was seen as a “victory sign”. Another highlight was the use of statements made by Ciro Gomes in order to legitimize criticism against Lula and convert votes from Ciro to Bolsonaro in a potential second round.

Third way (Orange)‒ 4.16% of profiles | 5.43% of interactions
Group formed by Ciro Gomes and his supporters, as well as Simone Tebet and other names of the Brazilian right wing who are not aligned with President Bolsonaro, such as Sérgio Moro and Deltan Dallagnol. The common ground in the group is the criticism of the Bolsonaro administration and, even more so, of former president Lula. Although they started their campaigns in different political fields, they all converged in accusing the PT candidate of corruption and claiming that none of the candidates leading the election would be a good option for presidency.

Major tweets inside the groups in the map of interactions on Twitter
Period: September 27 to 29

 

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV

Evolution of the political fields on Twitter

The analysis of the political fields is carried out through the network of relationships established through retweets. The research rule adopted sought to collect publications mentioning the presidential candidates in Brazil in 2022. The groups were formed based on the network of retweets, which approximates profiles retweeting the same profiles. That is, if two profiles retweeted 10 other profiles, and 8 of those were the same, they become closer. If they do not share profiles, they become more distant. This technique enables the identification of groups of profiles that were later classified according to ideological fields.

 

Evolution in the volume of profiles in Lula’s and Bolsonaro’s political fields on Twitter
Period: August 16 to September 26 | Aggregated per week

 

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV

 

Presidential candidates and topics on Twitter

Mentions to presidential candidates on Twitter
Period: August 16 to September 29

 

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV

 

• Mentions to the candidates Jair Bolsonaro and Lula reached a new level since the beginning of the electoral race, reflecting aspects of the debate held by Rede Globo. In turn, Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet stood out more in the Band debate;
• Comments about Bolsonaro focused on praising the president and showing support; criticism of the president had a secondary role. Narratives opposing Rede Globo stood out. The pro-government group was confident about the upcoming first round, ignoring the voting intention polls published by research institutes;
• In mentions to former president Lula, the discussion had more disputes. Although showing support for the PT candidate was also a highlight, with comments about his statements during the Globo debate, the pro-government group continued to criticize the candidate. There was a strong presence of Bolsonaro’s and Lula’s supporters in mentions to the other candidates, which indicates the strength of these groups on Twitter;
• The dispute between the two candidates leading the voting intention polls was reflected on twitter throughout the presidential race. Bolsonaro dominated the discussion and remained ahead of the PT candidate on terms of mentions during most of the period monitored. However, Lula was able to stand out in a few moments, particularly during the interview round of Jornal Nacional, when the former president obtained more than twice as many mentions as Bolsonaro.

 

Major topics related to the election on Twitter
Period: August 16 to September 29

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV

 

• The topics of security, economy, health and the environment registered their highest peaks during the Globo debate. In security, the highlight was Bolsonaro’s attempt to use Simone Tebet in order to associate Lula to the murder of Celso Daniel In economy, the focus was on the issue of unemployment. In health, the highlight was the death toll of the pandemic was raised by the presidential candidates against Bolsonaro;
• Security was a highlight in the electoral period as a while, particularly regarding accusations against the presidential candidates involving corruption and relations with organized crime, as well as episodes of political violence;
• The increase in hunger, fuel prices and the social aids approved near the elections were the main highlights regarding the economy. The electoral debate in Band had one of the highest number of mentions to the topic, particularly regarding statements made by Ciro and Lula about the deterioration of the economy;
• In health, President Jair Bolsonaro’s interview for the Jornal Nacional and the Band debate also expanded the discussion about the federal government’s performance in the fight against the pandemic and about the president’s imitations of people suffocating, minimizing the severity of the disease in the beginning of the pandemic. The Nursing floor, approved by Bolsonaro and vetoed by the Supreme Court, was also a highlight in the final stretch of the first round;
• The debates about the environment and education were mentioned based on declarations made by the presidential candidates during interviews and debates, but had a low influence in the debate as a whole. Regarding the environment, the highlight was criticism of Bolsoanro for the high levels of deforestation and violence against indigenous peoples in his administration. In education, the highlights were proposals made by the presidential candidates and the repercussion of the Ministry of Education scandal.

 

 

Interactions in the profiles of presidential hopefuls

Twitter

Evolution of interactions in the profiles of presidential hopefuls on Twitter
Analysis period: August 16 to September 29 | Aggregated per week

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV

 

• The latent aggravation of the competition between Jair Bolsonaro and Lula was also clear in the engagement with presidential candidates on Twitter. The participation of both candidates in the interviews for Jornal Nacional, and later in the debates in Band and Globo, represented some of the most significant peaks. In turn, Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet remained behind their major opponents and had more mentions in the Band debate;
• The discourse about “truths” and “lies” marked Bolsonaro’s narrative regarding Lula, while the PT candidate focused on the idea of renovating the country through his elections. Lula gained the support of the network particularly when highlighting aspects such as the “biased” decisions to which he was submitted, as well as his imprisonment, which he considered unjust. Bolsonaro’s defense regarding his accusation of having made fun of Covid-19 patients was a highlight on Jornal Nacional and was also a moment of great repercussion regarding the candidate.

 

Facebook

 

Evolution of interactions in the profiles of presidential hopefuls on Facebook
Analysis period: August 16 to September 29 | Aggregated per week

Source: Facebook | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV

 

• Bolsonaro obtained the highest number of interactions on Facebook during the whole electoral period, with a highlight to his interview days on the Jornal Nacional and on Pânico. Even in moments of decrease, the president was able to maintain his support group engaged with publications about this schedule and about alleged achievements of his administration;
• Lula surpassed Bolsonaro in a few moments, such as during his interview on Jornal Nacional and after a press conference with Marina and Alckmin. However, in terms of total interactions, Lula remained far behind the re-election candidate, and this distance widened near the election day;
• Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet remained stable throughout the presidential race, reaching an insignificant number of interactions compared to Bolsonaro and Lula. While Ciro stood out with portions of his interview on Jornal Nacional, Tebet had a peak of interactions with the Band debate.

Instagram

Evolution of interactions in the profiles of presidential hopefuls on Instagram
Analysis period: August 16 to September 29 | Aggregated per week

Source: Instagram | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV

 

• Engagement on Instagram was marked by the dominance of Jair Bolsonaro, who concentrated most of the engagement on the network due to repercussions of his interview on Jornal Nacional and the debates on Band and Globo. In turn, Lula stayed significantly behind, and his most successful posts sought to get closer to the public with a more informal tone;
• One exception to Bolsonaro’s large advantage against Lula happened on the second half of September, when the PT candidate focused on publications showing artists that declared support for his candidacy;
• Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet had a low level of reach compared to the two leading candidates. Tebet’s highlights consisted of excerpts from the debate in which she criticized Bolsonaro due to his sexist and authoritarian behavior. Ciro’s highlights consisted of denouning the political use of the September 7 holiday by Bolsonaro.

 

YouTube

Evolution of views in the channels of presidential hopefuls on YouTube
Analysis period: July 25 to September 18 | Aggregated per week

 

Source: YouTube | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV

 

• In the official channels of presidential candidates, Bolsonaro’s dominance was significantly disrupted by the good video performance of Lula, Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet;
  Lula’s interview on Programa do Ratinho represented the highest peak of views achieved by the PT candidate, who invested on the “return of hope” rhetoric. His highlights also included videos in which the candidate claimed to have been a victim of a “plot”, and in which he criticized Bolsonaro’s administration of the pandemic;
• While Ciro stood out with his proposals, such as the “Anti-greed” law and a minimum income of R$ 1 thousand, Simone stood out by presenting herself to the electors and explaining her political background;
• Bolsonaro did not stand out as much as his opponents, achieving only a limited level of repercussion with live broadcasts and “speeches to the Nation”.

TikTok

Evolution of plays in the channels of presidential hopefuls on TikTok
Analysis period: August 16 to September 29 | Aggregated per week

 

Source: TikTok | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV

 

• TikTok seems to have been the presidential “arena” with the most balanced competition, with Jair Bolsonaro, Lula and Ciro Gomes achieving similar levels of engagement. In turn, Simone Tebet’s performance was insignificant when compared to the presence of her opponents on the platform;
• Bolsonaro’s defense after making fun of Covid-19 patients, a topic about which he was questioned on Jornal Nacional, was his most viewed video. In turn, Lula’s declaration about having been accused of not being a Christian stood out, while Ciro generated repercussions with memes.

 

Map of interactions – Facebook

Map of interactions in mentions to presidential candidates in the debate about the elections on Facebook
Period: August 16 to September 29

Source: Facebook | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV

Left wing (Red) ‒ 33.96% of profiles
Group formed by pages and groups supporting former president Lula’s candidacy. The most shared links were the repercussion of news with suspicions of corruption, such as the investigation about the purchase of real state using cash by the Bolsonaro family and the publication of websites with campaign material for the streets and virtual environments.

Right wing (Blue) ‒ 32.30% of profiles
Group formed by pages and groups supporting Jair Bolsonaro’s candidacy. This group was marked by the circulation of websites with negative stories against former president Lula, particularly the website “LulaFlix”, which gathers materials seeking to harm the PT candidate. A poll published by the research company Brasmarket showing Bolsonaro 13 percentage points ahead of Lula also obtained large repercussion and was shared more than 200 times.

Local media (Orange) – 2.88% of profiles
Group formed by pages and groups for local news. The group was marked by the circulation of links from regional media websites, commenting on episodes of violence during the electoral campaign, particularly episodes involving Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters. A nod given by the soccer player Neymar to Bolsonaro was also commented and appeared among the most shared links.

Regional influencers (Pink) ‒ 2.32% of profiles
Group formed by blogs and portals for regional news. The different tones in the news stories shared in the group suggests that there are media outlets favoring either Lula or Bolsonaro or dealing with topics related to the elections in a more balanced and “neutral” way.

Blogs and regional pages (Green) – 2.23% of profiles
Group formed by pages and blogs focusing on sharing regional information. The highlights included the publication of campaign acts promoted by presidential candidates and punishment for irregular electoral campaigns. The most shared news also included opinions of city councilors and entrepreneurs about who is going to win the election. There was no evident political position, with tones varying between each media outlet.