• In the second round, Bolsonaro had a higher volume of interactions on Instagram, TikTok and Facebook, while Lula stood out on Twitter and YouTube;
• On Twitter, the left-wing group was strengthened by the third way and influencers, reaching more profiles and interactions; the group aligned with Bolsonaro had less than 20% of the profiles on the network;
  In the posts with the highest number of interactions on the platforms, Lula was prominent in videos together with Simone Tebet on YouTube and in posts about his visits to the Southeast and South regions on Facebook;
• While Lula targeted a younger audience on TikTok by making K-pop references in his videos, his conversation focused on religious people on Instagram. On Twitter, the PT candidate stood out with posts criticizing Bolsonaro;
• The candidate for re-election obtained a high volume of interactions by mentioning the support he received from allies and supporters, such as Neymar and Gusttavo Lima, particularly on Facebook and YouTube;
• Bolsonaro’s TikTok and Instagram had a similar rhetoric, with anti-establishments posts criticizing the left. On Twitter, the president was prominent due to his opinion about Roberto Jefferson and his comment about the result of the first round;
• The debate about security remained in evidence. Associations between Lula and organized crime and the episode involving Roberto Jefferson set the tone of the discussion;
• Religion, which is usually a more secondary topic, was a highlight. That part of the debate was marked by associations between Bolsonaro and Masonry as well as the claim that Lula might close churches down.

According to the trend observed in the first round, Jair Bolsonaro’s hegemony on the networks seen in 2018 was diluted, opening space for a more balance battle against the PT campaign. In the final stretch of the elections, Bolsonaro had a higher volume of interactions on Instagram, TikTok and Facebook, while Lula stood out on Twitter and YouTube. Those were the findings of a survey by the FGV School of Communication, which identified 92 million messages about the presidential candidate in the campaign period for the second round.

In turn, the map of interactions based on Twitter data showed Bolsonaro’s support group in decline, while the group composed by Lula and his supporters was strengthened with the support of the third way. The left remained in the lead both in number of profiles, with 23.5%, and in number of interactions, with 55.6% of the total. The group showed a stronger ability to communicate with allied clusters, which led to a significant isolation of the pro-Bolsonaro group.

 

Map of interactions – Twitter

Map of interactions in mentions to presidential candidates in the debate about the elections on Twitter
Period: October 3 to 26

 

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV

Right wing (Blue) – 18.63% of profiles | 37.79% of interactions
Group formed by Jair Bolsonaro and his major allies, including politicians, journalists and influencers. The graph shows the decline and isolation of this group, which had little communication with other groups. The group focused on attacking the PT administrations, campaigning to change votes, and promoting a positive discourse about the economy.

Left wing (Red) – 23.56% of profiles | 55.68% of interactions
Group composed of Lula and his allies, such as left-wing politicians and influencers, as well as anti-Bolsonaro profiles. Felipe Neto, Guilherme Boulos and André Janones were major names in this cluster. The subjects of the major discussions were Bolsonaro’s statement about Venezuelan girls, reports of corruption in his government, as well as attacks against Catholic authorities by Bolsonaro electors.

Anti-Bolsonaro influencers (Pink) ‒ 38.27% of profiles | 2.88% of interactions
Group composed of left-wing influencers, entertainment pages and political actors in the progressive field, who criticized President Bolsonaro’s administration and denounced actions they considered inadequate for a president. The highlights were content about the management of the pandemic, the budget freeze for education, and the moral debate associated with the president during the second round.

Third way (Green) ‒ 13.61% of profiles | 3.59% of interactions
Group composed by political leaders, influencers and journalists who opposed both Lula and Bolsonaro in the first round, especially Simone Tebet. Like the senator, most of the group criticized President Jair Bolsonaro and declared their vote for Lula as a way to oppose the president. However, there were also declarations of vote for Bolsonaro as a way to prevent Lula’s election.

Major tweets inside the groups in the map of interactions on Twitter
Period: October 3 to 26

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV

 

Presidential candidates and topics on Twitter

Mentions to presidential candidates on Twitter
Period: October 3 to 26

 

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV

 

• Jair Bolsonaro led the mentions in the period, with 49 million mentions coming from critics, supporters and non-aligned users. Lula, in turn, was mentioned 33 million times;
• The peak of mentions to both presidential candidates in the period happened during the Band debate on October 16. Jair Bolsonaro’s declaration about Venezuelan girls, which he had made two days before, set the tone for a significant portion of the comments on Twitter;
• There was criticism of Sérgio Moro’s presence and to Lula’s performance in the debate, as well as statements about alleged untruths mentioned by the current president, which were at the center of discussion during the aforementioned peak;
• Bolsonaro’s alleged association with Masonry and questions about Lula’s Christianity increased mentions to both candidates significantly and boosted the debate about religion in the beginning of October, including critics, memes and sensationalist messages;
• The episode involving the politician Roberto Jefferson prompted a large amount of mentions to Bolsonaro, mostly criticizing the president. The president’s attempts to hide his personal and political relationship with Jefferson prompted messages denouncing and mocking him in the progressive field;
• The number of mentions to both presidential candidates was balanced only once. Fake news attributed to Bolsonaro and criticism of the alleged “partiality” of the Supreme Electoral Court regarding decisions favoring Lula accounted for this unusual balance of references to the candidates. Lula was never ahead of Bolsonaro in number of mentions.

 

Major topics related to the election on Twitter
Period: October 3 to 26

 

 

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV

 

• The debate about security remained a highlight during the second round of the elections. The highlights in this section of the debate were the continued attempts made by supporters of President Bolsonaro to associate former president Lula to organized crime and drug trafficking – a topic that had been explored in the first round –, as well as the episode involving the former congressman Roberto Jeffersson and the alleged attack involving the candidate for governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas;
• Still on the topic of security, the reports filed by President Bolsonaro’s campaign related to radio advertisements that were not broadcast had repercussions on both political fields. While the president’s supporters claimed there was electoral fraud, Lula’s supporters condemned the president’s statements about the topic and accused him of planning a coup;
• The social aid program Auxílio Brasil and the minimum wage were the highlights in the debate about the economy, particularly among supporters of former president Lula, who argues that Bolsonaro is using the program for electoral purposes and criticized the project organized by Minister Paulo Guedes to de-index minimum wage readjustments from inflation. In health, there was also criticism of the president related to the administration of the pandemic;
• Religion was a new subject among the major topics in the electoral debate, driven by a video in which President Bolsonaro participated in a Masonry event and videos showing the president’s supporters in celebrations of Our Lady Aparecida, which prompted criticism of the president and questions about his “Christian values”. Criticism of former president Lula and claims that he will close down churches appeared in the debate, as well as content denying these accusations;
• The blocking of funds for federal universities and colleges announced by the government and the statements made by the presidential hopefuls during the Band debate accounted for the peaks in the discussion about education. The debate also mobilized the discussion about the environment, particularly Bolsonaro’s claim that Lula’s administration caused the most deforestation, and the debate about who is responsible for the transposition of the São Francisco River.

 

Interactions in the profiles of presidential hopefuls

Twitter

Evolution of interactions in the profiles of presidential hopefuls on Twitter
Analysis period: October 3 to 26 | Aggregated per week

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV

 

• Former president Lula ended the first round of the elections with a volume of interactions on Twitter close to that of President Bolsonaro, and consolidated this position in the second round. In his major posts, the former president talked about the 100-year secrecy imposed over information related to the Bolsonaro administration – which he promised to lift –, denied fake news associated with him and thanked the declaration of support made by the influencer Casemiro;
• President Jair Bolsonaro ended the first round behind Lula in number of interactions on Instagram; however, the president was a highlight in posts talking about the result of the first round, promising to free Brazil and stating that “there is something bigger at stake”. The president’s statement about the episode involving the former congressman Roberto Jefferson also had a large repercussion on the platform;

 

Facebook

Evolution of interactions in the profiles of presidential hopefuls on Facebook
Analysis period: October 3 to 26 | Aggregated per week

Source: Facebook | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV

 

• Bolsonaro was more predominant on Facebook in terms of interactions than Lula. This predominance increased in a few moments during the second round of the electoral campaign, with posts commenting about episodes of violence or highlighting opinions of political allies, such as Sílvia Waiãpi. The declarations of support made by country musicians such as Gusttavo Lima and Leonardo on October 17 also led to a significant increase in interactions on Bolsonaro’s page, increasing his lead against Lula;
• On the other hand, the former president showed fewer oscillations during the analyzed period, indicating more stability in the number of interactions in his page. Lula was able to surpass Bolsonaro in a few moments, such as during his visits to Belo Horizonte, Porto Alegre and Rio Grande do Sul. Lula’s interview at the podcast Desce a Letra Show also mobilized a high number of interactions, leaving the PT candidate ahead of Bolsonaro, even though the president made publications about the episode involving Roberto Jefferson and about Neymar’s support.

Instagram

Evolution of interactions in the profiles of presidential hopefuls on Instagram
Analysis period: October 3 to 26 | Aggregated per week

Source: Instagram | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV

 

• During the second round, President Jair Bolsonaro continued showing a higher volume of interactions on the platform, despite a significant drop in the last week of the race. His major publications included posts in which the president presented himself as an anti-establishment candidate who will fight “against everything and everyone”. In these posts, the president stated that what is at stake is not the election, but Brazil’s freedom, values and future, criticizing the lies and attacks that happened during the campaign and attributing those to his opponent;
• Former president Lula had a lower performance than his opponent in the second round of the elections, but surpassed Bolsonaro in a few moments of the dispute. Among the posts with the highest volume of interactions by the PT candidate, the highlights were content associating Lula with Christianity and emphasizing his religiosity, as well as videos thanking the support declared by artists for the former president and more relaxed moments of Lula during the campaign.

YouTube

 

Evolution of views in the channels of presidential hopefuls on YouTube
Analysis period: October 3 to 26 | Aggregated per week

Source: YouTube | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV

 

• Lula’s performance on YouTube remained stable and almost always higher than that of Jair Bolsonaro, although the current president’s official channel has almost 5 million subscribers more than Lula’s. As in other moments of the electoral race, Bolsonaro’s channel was not at the center of his campaign, except for his weekly live broadcasts;
• In one of those broadcasts, the “Freedom Live” with the participation of soccer player Neymar, the president surpassed Lula’s hegemony and his high indicators, with more than 14 million views. Another video with large repercussion was another “Freedom Live”, this time with singer Gusttavo Luma, with 5 million spectators;
• In addition to maintaining a stable performance on the platform, Lula reached important indicators, particularly with videos focusing on the support he received from the former presidential candidate Simone Tebet. Three videos with Tebet in Lula’s channel had between 5 and 9 million views each;
• Videos about Lula’s position on guns, the gas price, and implying that Bolsonaro’s is angry with the Northeast region were among his most viewed on the platform.

TikTok

Evolution of plays in the channels of presidential hopefuls on TikTok
Analysis period: October 3 to 26 | Aggregated per week

Source: TikTok | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV

 

• Lula’s and Jair Bolsonaro’s performance on TikTok were more balanced than on YouTube. However, unlike on YouTube, TikTok had a higher predominance of the current president;
• Bolsonaro’s profile achieved his most significant indicators with videos joking about identity issues and left-wing parties and/or suggesting their criminalization, associated with a “rough”, aesthetic of quick assimilation;
• The president also stood out by exploring his relationship with Flamengo and accompanying a children’s choir that sang a sing to support him;
• Lula stood out by showing videos receiving the support of children, as well as highlighting his relationship with indigenous peoples and the Northeast and making references to K-pop, targeting the younger section of the public.