• On Twitter, Bolsonaro is able to generate the most significant peaks, but Lula also has a high power of mobilization;
• On Facebook, Bolsonaro’s lead is higher compared to the other presidential hopefuls; Moro’s activity and reach on that platform are increasing;
• Instagram had the highest number of interactions and the most impact due to the engagement around Bolsonaro’s hospitalization.
• On YouTube, Ciro Gomes remained close to Bolsonaro, but the total volume of views was affected by only two videos;
• Sérgio Moro is the third presidential hopeful with the most interactions on Twitter and Instagram; his presence on Facebook and YouTube is still low.

According to a survey by the Department of Public Policy Analysis at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV DAPP), there were 55.8 million interactions in 2,293 posts made by the official profiles of Jair Bolsonaro (PL), Lula (PT), Ciro Gomes (PDT), Sergio Moro (Podemos), João Doria (PSDB), Alessandro Vieira (Cidadania), Felipe d’Ávila (Novo), Simone Tebet (MDB), Rodrigo Pacheco, (PSD) and André Janones (Avante) on Twitter, no Facebook, Instagram, and Youtube between December 17, 2021 and January 20, 2022.

The digital performance of the presidential hopefuls on these platforms was analyzed based on three dimensions: 1) The evolution of the volume of interactions over time, 2) the ranking of total interactions, and 3) the relationship between posts and interactions.

Twitter

In the period analyzed, the nine presidential hopefuls made 916 posts on Twitter, generating 6.7 million interactions including shares and likes.

Evolution of interactions in posts made by presidential hopefuls on Twitter
Analysis period: December 17, 2021 to January 20, 2022

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: FGV DAPP

• President Bolsonaro has the highest level of engagement on the platform and has maintained a constant performance during most of the period, with three peaks of interactions when he shared one of his holiday activities on December 20, when he made an end-of-year speech on January 1st, and when the replied to claims that his administration was to blame for the inflation, and not the pandemic, on January 13.
• Lula’s engagement on Twitter varied frequently during the period, with two major peaks of interactions due to a post stating that the population has the right to eat, on December 12, and the announcement of his first meeting in 2022, with Dilma Rousseff, on January 13.
• Sergio Moro’s posts have been growing in visibility on Twitter and started to mobilize more engagement in the beginning of the year. In fact, the former judge achieved his largest number of interactions on Twitter on January 19, after replying to accusations made by Lula.
• Despite making the highest number of posts on Twitter, Ciro Gomes has achieved slightly more than half of Moro’s engagement. With no significant peaks, the interactions in his posts increase when he remembered the day when he was targeted by a Federal Police operation on January 11.
• With a frequently low level of engagement, João Doria’s posts on Twitter were highlighted in occasions when he supported children vaccination against Covid-19.

Posts vs. interactions in profiles of presidential hopefuls on Twitter
Analysis period: December 17, 2021 to January 20, 2022

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: FGV DAPP

Bolsonaro has been very active on Twitter and is able to maintain a large advantage the average number of interactions (16 thousand interactions per post) compared to the others, followed closely by Lula (13 thousand interactions per post).
Although he is the most active presidential hopeful on the platform (with twice as many posts as Doria, for instance), Ciro Gomes had a low level of engagement compared to the three first ones with the most interactions.
Among d’Ávila, Janones, Alessandro Vieira and Tebet, the candidate for Cidadania stood out with a relatively significant average of interactions, which is higher even than that of Ciro Gomes.

Facebook

Between December 17, 2021 and January 20, 2022, the presidential hopefuls published 702 posts on Facebook and generated more than 19 million likes, shares, comments and reactions.

Evolution of interactions in posts made by presidential hopefuls on Facebook
Analysis period: December 17, 2021 to January 20, 2022

Source: Facebook

• Facebook remains the platform where President Jair Bolsonaro has a the highest volume of interactions. In the period analyzed, this was evidenced by a recovery of this digital performance.
• His highest peak of interactions was the moment of his hospitalization due to an episode of “intestinal subocclusion” in the beginning on January (03), and his subsequent recovery (05). More recently, his posts with the highest level of engagement were about non-compulsory child vaccination (19).
• The former president Lula saw a decrease, but remained in second place in performance on the platform. His post with the highest level of engagement happened on the same day of Bolsonaro’s weekly live broadcast (January 13), surpassing its interactions. It reported on the first meeting the former president had this year with Dilma Rousseff.
• André Janones kept his level of performance and position. He stood out in this period with a comment about the approval of the new value for the minimum wage and posts about his Covid-19 diagnosis and treatment.
• The former judge Sergio Moro rose to the fourth position in terms of engagement, which was previously occupied by Ciro Gomes, showing a higher volume of posts compared to previous analyses. His highlighted posts commented on his participation in the Flow Podcast.
• João Doria did not change his level of activity or engagement, and focused on posting information and campaigning for the Covid-19 vaccine, especially regarding Anvisa’s approval of Coronavac for child vaccination.
• Ciro Gomes decrease in terms of performance and focused on building a government plan emphasizing the economic agenda.

Posts vs. interactions in profiles of presidential hopefuls on Facebook
Analysis period: January 20, 2021 to January 20, 2022

Source: Facebook

Instagram

Between December 17, 2021 and January 20, 2022, the presidential hopefuls published 510 posts on Instagram and generated more than 25.3 million likes and comments.

Evolution of interactions in posts made by presidential hopefuls on Instagram
Analysis period: December 17, 2021 to January 20, 2022

Source: Instagram

• Like on Twitter and Facebook, Bolsonaro’s hospitalization and discharge prompted sharp peaks of interactions on Instagram. Another moment of high volume of interactions in Bolsonaro’s profile happened on December 31 due to his end-of-year speech. These peaks contributed to explain the distance between Bolsonaro and the other candidates, but were not the cause of his leading position, since the president remained the presidential hopeful with the most interactions in 23 of the 35 days analyzed.
• The main posts made by Lula commented on cheerful moments, such as his meeting with the former president Dilma Rousseff and the release of a WhatsApp sticker pack related to his campaign. Concerns about the increasing Covid cases and incentives to vaccination were the highlights of the second publication with the most engagement in the period.
• Sergio Moro had the third highest volume of interactions on Instagram. His highlights were publications defending his decisions during the Operation Car Wash and criticizing statements made by the former president Lula about the investigation.

Posts vs. interactions in profiles of presidential hopefuls on Instagram
Analysis period: December 17, 2021 to January 20, 2022

Source: Instagram

• The figure shows the large distance between Bolsonaro and the other presidential hopefuls, having the highest volume of interactions and a number of posts that places his at the center of the publications.
• Ciro Gomes and João Doria made the most publications in the period. Vaccination was the main topic discussed by the governor of São Paulo. In turn, Ciro Gomes obtained engagement due to his criticism of the refusal of humanitarian aid offered by Argentina to mitigate the damage caused by the floods in Bahia.

YouTube

Between December 17, 2021 and January 20, 2022, the presidential hopefuls published 165 videos on YouTube and generated more than 4.7 million interactions.

Evolution of views in videos posted by presidential hopefuls on YouTube
Analysis period: December 17, 2021 to January 20, 2022

Source: YouTube

• On YouTube, the distance between Bolsonaro and the second presidential hopeful (Ciro Gomes) was the smallest. However, the figure shows that Ciro’s high volume of views was concentrated in only two videos, while Bolsonaro’s average number of views was more stable.
• A Christmas speech was Ciro Gomes’s video with the most views, followed by a video in which he mocked Sergio Moro’s performance in an interview. Moro was also targeted by other publications in Ciro’s channel.
• In turn, Bolsonaro’s leadership was based on his Wednesday live broadcasts, which reached between 160 and 175 thousand views in the period.

Posts vs. views in channels of presidential hopefuls on YouTube
Analysis period: December 17, 2021 to January 20, 2022

Source: YouTube

• Ciro Gomes’ investment on YouTube is evidenced by the number of videos published in his channel. However, the proportion between the total number of views and the number of views in his two major videos suggests that the channel was not able to keep a captive audience.
• The channel of the former president Lula was the third with the most videos, with a volume close to Bolsonaro’s channel, but was not able to reach a high volume of views. The main video in Lula’s channel was an interview he gave to independent media outlets.
• Sergio Moro, Alessandro Vieira and João Doria had a low volume of videos and views in this period.