• Bolsonaro shows a trend of decrease in all platforms while his adversaries grow and are technically tied in terms of volume of interactions on Twitter and YouTube.
• Lula got close to Bolsonaro on Twitter and Instagram after posts about his trip to Europe and his interview at the podcast Podpah.
• Sergio Moro has established himself as the third candidate with the most interactions on Twitter and Instagram, but has not grown since the announcement of his pre-candidacy.
• Ciro Gomes stood out on YouTube, where he was ahead of Bolsonaro in three of the seven weeks analyzed. Gomes saw peaks on all networks last week in publications about the Federal Police operation that targeted him on December 15.
• André Janones was third in terms of interactions on Facebook and showed a high potential for engagement, but low activity in the other networks analyzed.
• Marina Silva and João Doria had a low level of interaction on all platforms.

An analysis carried out by the Department of Public Policy Analysis at Fundação Getulio Vargas between November 1st and December 19, 2021, found around 82.2 million interactions in the official profiles of Jair Bolsonaro (PL), Lula (PT), Ciro Gomes (PDT), Marina Silva (REDE), João Doria (PSDB), and André Janones (Avante) on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram.

The digital performance of the presidential hopefuls was analyzed based on three dimensions: 1) The evolution of the volume of interactions over time, 2) the ranking of total interactions, and 3) the relationship between posts and interactions. Metrics were aggregated weekly in the evolution figures.

Twitter

Between November 1st and December 19, 2021, the presidential hopefuls published 656 posts on Twitter and generated more than 4.2 million retweets and likes.

Evolution of interactions in posts made by presidential hopefuls on Twitter
Analysis period: November 1st to December 19th, 2021

Source: Twitter

• The leader in interactions on Twitter was President Jair Bolsonaro, who showed a trend of decrease in the volume of likes and retweets in the past seven weeks, while the former president Lula practically tied with him on this network.
• The number of interactions in publications made by Lula varied largely each week, with sharp peaks on the week of November 15, when he traveled to Europe to meet with leaders from different countries, and in the week of November 29, when he participated in the podcast Podpah.
• Sergio Moro, who became a pre-candidate and started investing more actively on social networks in the beginning of November, had between 200 and 300 thousand interactions per week, establishing himself as the third profile with the best performance on Twitter. However, his reach has not increased further since the beginning of his more active participation in the public debate.
• Ciro Gomes lost his third place to Sergio Moro and, similarly to him, remained stable during most of the period. The exception to this happened on December 13, after he was the target of a Federal Police operation and successfully used his networks to criticize their approach and defend himself from their accusations.
• Doria, Marina Silva and André Janones had a very low volume of interactions and were unable to generate peaks of interactions.

Posts vs. interactions in profiles of presidential hopefuls on Twitter
Analysis period: November 1st to December 19th, 2021

Source: Twitter

• The dispersion figure shows that Lula reached a similar volume of interactions to Bolsonaro, with a similar number of publications. On one hand, the increase in interactions was not related to a higher number of publications; on the other hand, it is important to note that Bolsonaro was more stable, while Lula obtained peaks of interactions through viral episodes and specific periods.
• Ciro Gomes published more than double the posts of the former minister Sergio Moro, but they had a similar volume of interactions.
• Among João Doria, Marina Silva and André Janones, the latter shows the highest potential for growth, considering this low level of activity on the network.

Facebook

Between November 1st and December 19, 2021, the presidential hopefuls published 1180 posts on Facebook and generated more than 28.6 million likes, shares, comments and reactions.

Evolution of interactions in posts made by presidential hopefuls on Facebook
Analysis period: November 1st to December 19th, 2021

Source: Facebook

• Bolsonaro is more dominant on Facebook, a network in which his advantage is more evident compared to the other presidential hopefuls. However, as seen on the other platforms analyzed, he had a drop in interactions during this period, which were much lower compared to his average potential for engagement.
• Bolsonaro’s posts that stood out and reached peaks of engagement were made in middle of November and showed his trip to Dubai, which coincided with the period in which the former president Lula was also traveling and meeting global leaders; Lula’s posts also had significant reach.
• Notably, a recent presidential pre-candidate, the congressman André Janones (Avante-MG), was third place in volume of interactions, and his influence appears only on Facebook. His highlighted posts focused on defending and commenting on the approval of the provisional measure 1076/21 regarding the Programa Auxílio Brasil, a social aid program that substitutes the Bolsa Família.
• The presidential hopefuls associated with the so-called third way remained with a low level of expression on Facebook.

Posts vs. interactions in profiles of presidential hopefuls on Facebook
Analysis period: November 1st to December 19th, 2021

 

Source: Facebook

• Jair Bolsonaro and Lula remain with a large advantage in engagement on Facebook. However, there has been a more stable scenario with the appearance of the presidential hopeful André Janones, with Bolsonaro gradually shrinking and Lula growing.
• There are similarities in the average posting patterns of the presidential hopefuls Sergio Moro, Marina Silva and João Doria; however, the former judge Sergio Moro has a higher level of engagement despite a lower number of posts, which indicates a high potential for mobilization on the platform.
• The presidential hopeful André Janones has a similar behavior and a similar potential, but shows a much lower volume of posts that still reach a high level of engagement.
• Lula is significantly ahead in terms of posts, almost double the average among presidential hopefuls, and accounts for more than 20% of the total interactions.

Instagram

Between November 1st and December 19, 2021, the presidential hopefuls published 837 posts on Instagram and generated more than 41.4 million likes and comments.

Evolution of interactions in posts made by presidential hopefuls on Instagram
Analysis period: November 1st to December 19th, 2021

Source: Instagram

• Instagram was the network with the most interactions in the profiles of the major presidential hopefuls. Jair Bolsonaro managed to retain a certain advantage and remained in first place in terms of likes and comments. The peak of mentions happened in the week of November 1st, prompted by a post offering his condolences for the death of singer Marília Mendonça. Since then, Bolsonaro’s page has been showing a decrease, with a slight increase in the week of December 6 due to a publication celebrating and thanking his alleged choice as Time Magazine’s Personality of the Year in a popular vote.
• Like on Twitter and Instagram, Lula showed large fluctuations each week, peaking in the weeks when he traveled to meetings in Europe and when he was interviewed for the podcast Podpah, which brought him to first place. Lula got close to Bolsonaro in the week of November 13, with posts in honor of Pope Francis’ birthday and congratulating the victory of left-wing candidate Gabriel Boric for president of Chile.
• Like on Twitter, Moro established himself in third place but remained stable, staying around 1 million weekly interactions.
• João Doria, Ciro Gomes, André Janones and Marina Silva had very low performance on the network, with around 500 thousand weekly interactions.

Posts vs. interactions in profiles of presidential hopefuls on Instagram
Analysis period: November 1st to December 19th, 2021

Source: Instagram

• Bolsonaro, Lula and Sergio Moro had a similar volume of publications, which suggests that the ranking indeed expresses the difference in mobilization for each of the profiles.
• Ciro Gomes, Marina Silva and João Doria are the three presidential hopefuls who publish the most on Instagram. However, this volume of activity was not reflected in an increase in the number of interactions.
• André Janones, in turn, had a low volume of publications, which may indicate a potential increase in the volume of interactions if he increases activities on his account.

YouTube

Between November 1st and December 19, 2021, the presidential hopefuls published 261 videos on YouTube and generated more than 8.0 million interactions.

Evolution of views in videos posted by presidential hopefuls on YouTube
Analysis period: November 1st to December 19th, 2021

Source: YouTube

• Like on Twitter, Bolsonaro was also ahead of the second place by a very low number of views on YouTube. In this case, Ciro Gomes was the candidate who came the closest, reaching less than 100,000 views than the president.
• While Bolsonaro continued to organize weekly live broadcasts as the main product of his YouTube channel, Ciro Gomes was highlighted in videos with his comments on national topics (such as issues with Petrobras) and in his “Ciro Games” series, in which he receives guests from different fields.
• Ciro Gomes was also ahead of Bolsonaro in three of the seven weeks analyzed and had the highest peak in the week of December 13, with videos in which he criticized the Federal Police operation that targeted him. Notably, there was a convergence between different media, with the four most viewed videos having been the result of statements in traditional media outlets such as CBN, MyNews, UOL, and an interview with the presenter José Luiz Datena.
• However, the most watched video in the period was the broadcast of Lula’s interview with Podpah on December 2nd. The video in the former president’s channel had more than 450 thousand views and the transmission on the podcast’s channel has reached more than 8 million views.

Posts vs. views in channels of presidential hopefuls on YouTube
Analysis period: November 1st to December 19th, 2021

Source: YouTube

• Ciro Gomes was the most active presidential hopeful on YouTube and managed to reach a level of views similar to Bolsonaro.
• 41.8% of Lula’s total views in the period happened in a single video, his interview with the podcast Podpah.
• The channels of André Janones and João Doria focused on showing results and information about work in the Chamber of Deputies and in the Government of São Paulo, respectively. Janones was highlighted in videos about the program Auxílio Brasil. Moro’s channel focused on videos in which the former minister presents his views on a variety of topics regarding the country.
• Moro and Doria’s videos have very low reach, with less than 5,000 views.