• While President Bolsonaro continued to post ironic comments, memes and moral issues, Lula obtained engagement in content talking about love;
• The arrest of former minister Milton Ribeiro, the assassination of Bruno Pereira and Dom Phillips, and the increase in fuel prices mobilized the debate and damaged Bolsonaro;
• Lula’s critics used a statement he made about the kidnapping of businessman Abílio Diniz to associate the former president with criminal activities;
• Ciro Gomes stood out among the other candidates forming the Third Way. André Janones and Simone Tebet had a secondary role in the group.

Security and the economy continued to be the topics most associated with the debate among presidential candidates on social media, but recent controversies increased the debate about education and infrastructure. Those were the findings of a survey by the Department of Public Policy Analysis at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV DAPP), which identified more than 36 million interactions in the profiles of presidential hopefuls Jair Bolsonaro (PL), Lula (PT), Ciro Gomes (PDT), André Janones (Avante) and Simone Tebet (MDB) on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube between June 1 and 26.

The debate on education was mobilized by the arrest of former minister Milton Ribeiro and the opening of the Ministry of Education inquiry, damaging Bolsonaro’s administration. In infrastructure, the privatization of Eletrobras and the pricing policy of Petrobras mobilized some users. Fuel prices were also a major topic in the economic debate, especially after the vote about the reduction of the State Goods and Services Tax (ICMS) on fuels in the National Congress and the president’s statements about the management of Petrobras. The debate on security associated former President Lula with criminal activities after he said that the kidnappers of businessman Abilio Diniz should be released from prison.

 

General debate

 

Map of interactions in mentions to presidential hopefuls in the debate about the elections on Twitter
Period: June 1 to 26

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: FGV DAPP

 

Red – 46.47% of profiles | 25.45% of interactions
Group formed by political leaders, influencers and left-wing artists who support the presidential hopeful Lula. The profiles associated President Bolsonaro with the death of Bruno Pereira and Dom Phillips, with the millionaire agreements signed by country singers in small cities, and with reports of a parallel office in the Ministry of Education that resulted in the arrest of the former minister Milton Ribeiro. The group also highlighted the importance of defeating Bolsonaro in the elections and celebrated Lula’s performance in the polls. Presidential candidate Ciro Gomes was also mentioned for his criticism of Lula and his poor performance in the polls.

Blue – 41.42% of profiles | 60.28% of interactions
Group composed of profiles of influencers and right-wing politicians, bloggers and alternative media channels, including President Jair Bolsonaro. Users in this group shared statements made by presidential hopeful Lula, who asked for the release of the kidnappers of businessman Albílio Diniz from prison, associating the former president (and biggest threat to Bolsonaro’s re-election) with criminal activities. The group defended the Bolsonaro administration, sharing posts about its measures in the economic area and celebrating the privatization of Eletrobras. The profiles also highlighted the president’s high popularity in public events and questioned the election polls. The Supreme Court was also criticized, with tweets talking about the “robe dictatorship” and accusing ministers of planning a coup against the president.

Orange – 7.96% of profiles | 13.14% of interactions
Group formed by profiles of political leaders and supporters of “Third Way” pre-candidates, dominated by the center-left candidate Ciro Gomes. The major topics in this group included Ciro’s participation in interviews and talk shows and criticism of Lula’s and Bolsonaro’s absence in these types of events. Users in this group were outraged with the possibility of leading candidates in electoral pools not participating in debates and with the bad reception of Eduardo Suplicy at the launch event for the PT government guidelines. Among the profiles associated with the center-right, there were posts about the alleged persecution of Sergio Moro’s attempts to run for president in the 2022 elections. The MDB pre-candidate, Simone Tebet, and the presidential candidate for Avante, André Janones, were part of this group, but had secondary roles. They were the 47th and 408th profiles in terms of weight in the group, respectively.

 

Major tweets inside the groups in the map of interactions
Period: Period: June 1 to 26

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: FGV DAPP

 

Analysis outside the bubble of presidential hopefuls on Twitter
Period: Period: June 1 to 26

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: FGV DAPP

 

Tweets with the highest volume of interactions outside the bubble
Period: Period: June 1 to 26

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: FGV DAPP

 

• The content posted by President Jair Bolsonaro had lowest volume of interactions outside his bubble, with only 1.1%. Of these, 0.7% are in the left-wing group and 0.3% in the “Third Way” group. The president’s most prominent content outside the two bubbles are responses to criticism, memes or comments related to political events of great public repercussion, such as the episode of the 11-year-old girl who was raped and was denied the right to an abortion;
• Former President Lula had 1.9% of interactions outside the bubble. In the right-wing group, which had 1.1% of the interactions, the highlight was a post from 2014 in which Lula criticized Geraldo Alckmin, indicating that Bolsonaro supporters replicated the content to demonstrate inconsistencies in Lula’s alliances. Posts about the Brazilian Valentine’s Day and mentioning the president by name were more frequent in the “Third Way” group, which had 0.7% of interactions outside the PT bubble;
• Ciro Gomes had 16.6% of interactions outside the “Third Way” group and was the candidate in that group with the lowest number of interactions outside the bubble. His posts, criticizing President Bolsonaro, were shared by the profiles of the left-wing group, accounting for 13.2% of the interactions outside the bubble. In the right-wing group, which represents 3.2% of the interactions outside the bubble, the highlight was a post mocking a photo of Lula leaving a private jet;
• The pre-candidate for the MDB, Simone Tebet, was the second with the most engagement outside the bubble, with almost 20% of the interactions originating from other groups. The senator was successful in popping her bubble in a tweet honoring former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso on his 91st birthday, and in another one responding to a provocation by comedian Antônio Tabet regarding the 100-year secrecy that the Federal Highway Police imposed on a case against agents involved in the death of Genivaldo Santos, in Sergipe. Interestingly, Ciro Gomes and Lula were also mentioned in this tweet, which may have increased their exposure;
• The presidential hopeful André Janones, in turn, was a secondary profile in the “Third Way” group, but had the greatest engagement outside his bubble. However, that could be associated with the fact that he does not have his own consolidated network. 28.4% of his tweets were shared by profiles of the left-wing group, focusing on publications that criticized the administration of Jair Bolsonaro regarding the pandemic, the privatization of Eletrobras and the Covid emergency aid.

 

Evolution of topics in the debate about the 2022 presidential election on Twitter
Period: June 1 to 26 | Aggregated per day

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: FGV DAPP

• The debate on public security remained the topic with the highest number of interactions in the presidential debate. Former president Lula was associated with criminality after he asked for the release of the kidnappers of businessman Abílio Diniz, and the accusation that Lula’s former accountant may have relations with the criminal faction PCC. President Bolsonaro was also mentioned in the debate due to his statement that Jesus would carry a gun, and due to his defense of former minister Milton Ribeiro, arrested under corruption allegations;
• The increase in fuel prices and the management of Petrobras mobilized the economic debate about the presidential elections. Critics and supporters of President Bolsonaro addressed the proposed ceiling for the State Goods and Services Tax (ICMS) as a way to reduce the price of gasoline. The president was criticized for his statements about the management of Petrobras and blamed for the company’s pricing policy;
• The management of Petrobras and the privatization of Eletrobras were also the subject of the debate on Infrastructure. Regarding the environment, the murder of indigenous expert Bruno Pereira and journalist Dom Phillips led to criticism of President Bolsonaro. The arrest of former minister Milton Ribeiro increased the debate on education.

 

Interactions in the profiles of presidential hopefuls

 

Evolution of interactions in the profiles of presidential hopefuls on Twitter
Analysis period: June 1 to 26 | Aggregated per week

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: FGV DAPP

 

• On Twitter, President Jair Bolsonaro continued to lead in volume of interactions. The most prominent posts on the platform continued to make joke about critics and use pop culture references, such as a response to the criticism of actor Mark Ruffalo in English, mocking his performance as “Hulk” as well as a post praising the movie Top Gun. A thread about abortion also had a high volume of interactions;
• Former president Lula has a little over half the volume of interactions of Jair Bolsonaro. He has focused on content of emotional nature. The highlights included a post sharing a video from a TV show in which a guest tries to break a plate and fails to do so, with the former president commenting about hunger and sending a “hug from the heart”; a post saying that, if he wins the election, he will not waste time on fights, but on work; and a post telling his followers to write a love letter on Valentine’s Day;
• The presidential hopeful Ciro Gomes had a slight increase in his number of interactions. In his posts, he talked about the interruption of Eduardo Suplicy in a meeting for Lula’s campaign, as well as a note from the Armed Forces talking about a statement he made;
• The presidential hopeful Simone Tebet commented on Bolsonaro’s statement about Christ carrying a gun and supported the installment of the Ministry of Education inquiry; the presidential hopeful André Janones criticized the banking system and invited journalist Reinaldo Azevedo to a debate.

 

Facebook

 

Evolution of interactions in the profiles of presidential hopefuls on Facebook
Analysis period: June 1 to 26 | Aggregated per week

Source: Facebook | Elaborated by: FGV DAPP

 

• President Jair Bolsonaro continued to show the highest volume of interactions among presidential hopefuls on Facebook. The highlights among the content he posted included moral guidelines, criticism of the former soccer player Casagrande, who struggles with substance dependence (with a text by Bolsonaro talking about the fight against drug trafficking in the country), a text opposing abortion with a photo of a seven-month-old baby in the ICU, commenting on the case of the 11-year-old girl who was raped and prevented from having an abortion, and a photo of the president with a baby in his arms, asking God to give strength to those who protect the innocence of children;
• Former president Lula remained distant from Bolsonaro in terms of the volume of interactions on the platform. His content showing the best performance are live broadcasts of campaign events, such as the visit to the Northeast Fair of Family Agriculture and Solidarity Economy, an event in Uberlândia, and an act in Porto Alegre with VP candidate Geraldo Alckmin;
• The presidential hopeful André Janones had a similar performance to former president Lula in terms of number of interactions. Posts about his role as rapporteur for the emergency aid for single mothers stood out. The main highlight in the profile of presidential hopeful Ciro Gomes was a video of singer Roberta Miranda talking about the rise in food prices.

 

Instagram

 

Evolution of interactions in the profiles of presidential hopefuls on Instagram
Analysis period: June 1 to 26 | Aggregated per week

Source: Instagram | Elaborated by: FGV DAPP

 

• President Bolsonaro continued to increase in interactions on Instagram. This growth was helped by a post in which the positioned himself abortion with a photo of a preterm baby, as well as content talking about Brazil’s participation in the G20 and a photo of a kiss between the president and the first lady wishing a happy Valentine’s Day;
• Former president Lula fluctuated during the period, but remained the second presidential hopeful with the highest number of interactions on the platform. Among his posts with the most interactions was a photo of the presidential hopeful with star-shaped glasses and talking about popular sovereignty, and a photo of him crying at the launch of a book containing letters received by him during his time in prison;
• The presidential hopeful Ciro Gomes had a drop in the volume of interactions compared to the previous period. His posts with the most interactions criticized President Bolsonaro and called him “weak”. André Janones invested in publicizing his activities in Congress, while Simone Tebet published about pre-campaign agendas.

 

YouTube

 

Evolution of interactions in the profiles of presidential hopefuls on YouTube
Analysis period: June 1 to 26 | Aggregated per week

Source: YouTube | Elaborated by: FGV DAPP

 

• YouTube was the most balanced platform in terms of performance of the main candidates for the 2022 presidential election. Ciro Gomes remained the presidential candidate with the most views on the platform, closely followed by Jair Bolsonaro. The PDT candidate was also the presidential candidate who published the most videos on the platform, followed by former president Lula;
• The most viewed video in the period was the jingle “Forró da Virada”, published on the channel of Ciro Gomes. Lula obtained the second and third place in views with a broadcast of an act in Sergipe and a performance by singer Zélia Duncan at the launch of the book “Querido Lula”;
• Among top five videos with the most views for Bolsonaro, four were statements and speeches broadcast in two events (in Balneário Camboriú and Los Angeles) and in live format from his office. The “Pronouncement to the Nation” on June 2 stood out, in which Bolsonaro criticized the decision of the Supreme Court to revoke the mandate of Paraná congresman Delegado Francischini (PSL).