• Left-wing groups, in which Guilherme Boulos stands out, and center-left groups, with Ciro Gomes, form autonomous bases; center-right and right-wing candidates are together in the same group.
• João Doria is the main target associated with the government and the major name among center-right pre-candidates.
• On Twitter, Guilherme Boulos’s profile presents the highest volume of interactions, followed by Ciro Gomes; right wing and center right did not obtain a significant level of engagement.
• On Facebook, there is a predominance of center-right pre-candidates, with a high volume of interactions in publications of Luciano Huck, João Doria and João Amoêdo;
• On Instagram, Guilherme Boulos had a large growth in May and leads in terms of interactions; Huck had a large volume of interactions with few publications, which indicates a lot of potential if he increases his level of activity.
• On YouTube, Ciro Gomes has the most views among the pre-candidates. However, the volume of views in that platform is very low compared to the other ones.

The names of potential presidential candidates of the so-called “third way” have intensified a significant part of the public debate on social networks in the past months. Between March 25 and May 31 2021, there were almost 7.19 million mentions on Twitter to alternative pre-candidates for the 2022 presidential elections according to a study by the Department of Public Policy Analysis of Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV DAPP). The first peak of mentions happened on April 5, with 446.6 thousand posts, after the publication of the information that governor João Doria (PSDB-SP) allegedly used public funds for publicity of companies owned by his supporters. Another moment of intense posting happened on May 4, when the debate was focused on the testimony given by the former minister of Health, Luiz Henrique Mandetta, to the “Covid Inquiry”, with 286.4 thousand posts.

Evolution of mentions to “third-way” pre-candidates on Twitter
Period: March 24 to May 31, 2021

Source: Twitter

The governor of São Paulo, João Doria (PSDB), was the focus of most of the attention in the debate, being mentioned in 2.89 million tweets and the main target of the federal government support group. Out of the ten hashtags used the most in the period, five were related to Doria: #mamataconnection (‘gravy train connection’), regarding a suspicious publicity contract for a TV channel, appearing in 431 thousand tweets; #doriamentiroso (‘Doria is a liar’), in 96 thousand tweets; #caixadepandoria (‘Pandoria’s box’), in 82.1 thousand tweets; and #doriagenocida (‘Doria is genocidal’) and #cpidatvcultura(‘TV Cultura inquiry’), used in 54.8 thousand and 30.9 thousand posts, respectively.

Map of interactions about the “third-way” pre-candidates on Twitter
Period: March 25 to May 31, 2021

Source: Twitter

Blue – 39.6% of profiles | 53.2% of interactions
Group including conservative journalists, bloggers and influencers and focusing on attacking the governor of São Paulo, João Doria (PSDB), who they see as the main antagonist of the current president, Jair Bolsonaro (no party). The criticism is mostly targeted at alleged public funds transferred to a television channel in order to promote allied entrepreneurs. Other targets of the group include suspicious negotiations between the government of São Paulo and the government of China, involving, among other things, the development of vaccines by the research center Butantan Institute, the restrictive measures imposed in São Paulo to fight Covid-19 – which were seen as Doria’s attempt to frighten and coerce the population of São Paulo –, and the governor’s behavior during a discussion with the federal deputy Carla Zambelli (PSL-SP), a supporter of the federal government.

Red – 20.7% of profiles | 16.8% of interactions
Group composed of journalists, news channels, comedy pages and politicians aligned with left-wing parties, which made posts accusing the former judge Sérgio Moro of bias during the trials of former president Lula, which, in turn, interfered with the 2018 elections. Emphasizing Fernando Haddad (PT), the posts highlighted the presidential candidate’s rebuke of the 1964 military regime and shared voting intention polls predicting the victory of PT candidates in the 2022 elections. Regarding the former president Lula, there were mentions to his “democratic meeting” with the former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso, to the decision by the Supreme Court to recognize Sérgio Moro’s bias in Lula’s trials, to a statement in which Lula said he would not confront – ‘play dirty’ – Ciro Gomes, and celebration of Jean Wylly’s (a former congressman for PSOL) affiliation with the Worker’s Party.

Green – 12.7% of profiles | 9.7% of interactions
Group composed of alternative media profiles, communicators, and the potential presidential candidates João Doria, João Amoêdo, Henrique Mandetta, Eduardo Leite and Luciano Huck, criticizing the federal government and particularly attacking the decisions made by President Jair Bolsonaro (no party) to fight the pandemic. Doria’s posts stood out, in which he praised the Butantan Institute for its production of vaccines against Covid-19, ironically remarked that he did not turn into an alligator after taking the vaccine at 63 years old, and stated that the vaccine is the possibility for “hope for better days”, showing solidarity for Brazilian workers who lost their jobs due to escalation of the pandemic. Amoêdo’s posts highlighted the allegedly “irresponsible” attitudes taken by Bolsonaro, such as promoting agglomerations and isolating Brazil from the world, regarding the dissemination and potential mutations of the virus. In addition, he opposed those who defended the return of paper ballots, stating that “the world has become more and more digital”.

Orange – 11.8% of profiles | 12.6% of interactions
Group composed of digital influencers, communication channels and politicians opposed to the federal government, denouncing the government’s omission in the fight against the pandemic in Brazil and highlighting the lack of medication for intubation and neglect regarding the purchase of vaccines, as well as commenting on the testimony given by the former minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta to the “Covid inquiry”. Ciro Gomes was a highlight in the group. In addition to criticizing President Jair Bolsonaro due to the context of the pandemic, he also criticized the attitudes and political decisions made by the Worker’s Party and Lula. He praised Marina Silva – ‘an extraordinary woman who has always fought for Brazil!’ – and repeated statements such as ‘the Earth is round’, ‘this was never just a little flu’, ‘it was a dictatorship’, and ‘there was torture’.

On Twitter, the potential presidential candidates made 4,022 thousand publications between March 1st, 2021 and May 31, 2021, reaching more than 1.6 million retweets.

Publications vs. retweets in profiles of ‘third-way’ pre-candidates on Twitter
Period: March 1st to May 31, 2021

Source: Twitter

• The pre-candidate for PSOL, Guilherme Boulos, had the highest number of retweets, more than double compared to the second place (Ciro Gomes) and five times more than the best-placed center-right candidate, João Doria.
• Ciro Gomes had a similar number of publications compared to Guilherme Boulos and more than 300 thousand retweets, which makes him stand out compared to the remaining pre-candidates.
• Four of the five initial positions are occupied by left-wing and center-left candidates, with João Doria being the only one among the right-wing and center-left pre-candidates to reach more than 100 thousand retweets in the period.

Evolution of retweets in profiles of ‘third-way’ pre-candidates on Twitter
Period: March 1st to May 31, 2021

Source: Twitter

• Guilherme Boulos had more engagement than all the other pre-candidates during the entire period, except for the first week, when Ciro Gomes was in the first position in terms of interactions.
• Boulos was also the pre-candidate with the highest peak of mentions in the week when the protests against the government happened, on May 29.
• Ciro Gomes (PDT) and Marina Silva (REDE) obtained a peak of retweets in the week of March 15, in publications criticizing the government.
• There was a decrease in the number of retweets of Ciro Gomes in the period analyzed.
• João Doria reached a peak when responding to a threat made by Eduardo Bolsonaro, who stated that governors should be investigated by the Covid inquiry.

Facebook

On Facebook, the presidential candidates made 1,348 publications between March 1st, 2021 and May 31, 2021, reaching more than 28.7 million interactions and 91.5 million views in posts with video content.

Publications vs. interactions in profiles of ‘third-way’ pre-candidates on Facebook
Period: March 1st to May 31, 2021

Source: Facebook

• Unlike on Twitter, on Facebook, the center and center-right pre-candidates presented the highest volumes of engagement, occupying three of the top four places.
• The TV presenter Luciano Huck had the largest volume of interactions, with around 9.6 million interactions in the period. João Doria was in third place, and the fourth position was occupied by the pre-candidate of Novo, João Amoêdo.
• Guilherme Boulos was the left and center-left pre-candidate with the highest volume of interactions, and is the potential presidential candidate with the highest number of publications among all those monitored.
• Ciro Gomes and Fernando Haddad had very similar volumes of interactions and a similar number of publications.

Evolution of interactions in profiles of ‘third-way’ pre-candidates on Facebook
Period: March 1st to May 31, 2021

Source: Facebook

• The engagement evolution graph shows that Luciano Huck had sharp peaks in a number weeks every month. Luciano Huck was responsible for the first 20 publications with the greatest engagement in the period, with posts commenting on social issues (such as racism) and health issues (such as publications in which he lamented the death of the actor Paulo Gustavo and the high number of daily deaths).
• There has been a decrease in interactions in the publications of the PSDB pre-candidate, João Doria, since March.
• As of the second half of April, Guilherme Boulos became the second pre-candidate with the most interactions and, as of the second week of May, he rose to the first place.
• The week in which the anti-government demonstrations happened (on May 29) prompted an increase in interactions in the profiles of Guilherme Boulos and Luciano Huck.

Instagram

On Instagram, the presidential candidates made 2,084 publications between March 1st, 2021 and May 31, 2021, reaching more than 38.0 million interactions and 70.5 million views in posts with video content.

Publications vs. interactions in profiles of ‘third-way’ pre-candidates on Instagram
Period: March 1st to May 31, 2021

Source: Instagram

• Guilherme Boulos was the pre-candidate with the highest activity and volume of interactions on Instagram in the period.
• Luciano Huck was the first pre-candidate associated with the center-right and has great potential for engagement, since he obtained a significant volume of interactions with only 47 publications.
• Ciro Gomes and João Doria had a similar volume of interactions, occupying an intermediate space between Huck and Boulos.

Evolution of interactions in profiles of ‘third-way’ pre-candidates on Instagram
Period: March 1st to May 31, 2021

Source: Instagram

In March, Luciano Huck had a more constant performance in terms of volume of interactions. From April onwards, the evolution of Huck’s interactions oscillated more due to specific publications that led to spikes in mentions.
The pre-candidate for PSOL, Guilherme Boulos, fluctuated between 1.3 million and 500 thousand interactions between March and April, showing very significant growth from May onwards. The peak of interactions in his profile happened during the week in which the anti-government demonstrations happened.
Ciro Gomes and João Dória showed a constant evolution, ranging between 500,000 and 1 million interactions.

YouTube

On YouTube, the presidential candidates made 347 videos between March 1st, 2021 and May 31, 2021, reaching more than 596.3 million interactions and 124.8 million views.

Publications vs. interactions in channels of ‘third-way’ pre-candidates on YouTube
Period: March 1st to May 31, 2021

Source: YouTube

• Ciro Gomes is the pre-candidate with the best performance on YouTube, with a volume far superior than all the other potential presidential candidates.
• João Doria has a very low volume of views, even though he is the potential presidential candidate with the highest number of videos published.
• However, YouTube does not seem to be a very strategic platform in terms of acting directly from the accounts of potential candidates, since it has a low volume of views compared to the reach of other networks.

Evolution of interactions in profiles of ‘third-way’ pre-candidates on YouTube
Period: March 1st to May 31, 2021

Source: YouTube

• Ciro Gomes’ channel occupies sixteen positions among the twenty videos with the most views.
• The video with the most publications in the period was published by Ciro Gomes’ channel and featured a comment made by the PDT candidate about the return of Lula’s political rights to a CNN Brazil newspaper. The second video presented a biography of the pre-candidate.
• Other pre-candidates performed very poorly on the platform.