• Even though fragmented, progressive and critical groups to the government – which count with 47.9% of the profiles and 40.3% of the interactions – converge in their rejection to Jair Bolsonaro;
• Campaign for voters of third way candidates to migrate their vote to Lula in the second round is circulating strongly among progressive and anti-Bolsonarist groups;
• Security and health are at the center of the electoral discussion, overtaking the debate about the economy and mobilizing strong feelings of rejection to Lula and Bolsonaro;
• While Ciro Gomes appears isolated, Simone Tebet establishes significant points of contact with the left wing. Criticism of the useful vote campaign and “blame” for the second round marks the discourse of third way voters.

The moment of counting the votes and the repercussions to the results the day after the first round elections were marked by the tone of disappointment and disbelief by both political fields. The themes of security and health emerge as the main ones in the debate, surpassing the theme of economy, which was strongly mobilized throughout the electoral dispute. On one side, the government support base raises the anti-corruption argument, concentrating a high volume of interactions; on the other side, the progressive field recalls the numbers and the mismanagement of the Covid-19 pandemic by the federal government, gathering approximately half of the profiles, is what the survey by the School of Communication of FGV shows, which analyzed more than 1 million posts with the repercussions of the election on Twitter, in the period from 4 p.m. on October 2 to 12 p.m. on October 3.

 

Map of interactions – Twitter

 

Map of interactions of the debate about the presidential candidates on Twitter
Period: from 4 p.m. on October 2 to 12 p.m. on October 3

 

 

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV

 

Right wing (blue) – 14.85% of profiles | 27.89% of interactions
Group formed by Jair Bolsonaro, far-right politicians and influencers. The endorsement of the president’s statement after the result of the first round and alleged accusations of fraud in the electoral process give the tone of the interactions of this group. The case of Minas Gerais, where several allies were elected but Bolsonaro did not have a majority of the votes, resonates as “evidence” of fraud. Messages of encouragement to the Bolsonaro militancy in the face of preference for Lula also circulated in the group.

Left wing (red) – 13.51% of profiles | 15.57% of interactions
Orbiting @lulaoficial’s official profile, the group brings together journalists, social activists and digital influencers from his support base. Messages of optimism from the candidate about the second round, promising a greater proximity with the Brazilian electorate, are going viral in the community. Profiles that admit having voted for other candidates declare – and ask – for Lula’s vote at the end of the election. Other posts reiterate their rejection of Jair Bolsonaro or celebrate the defeats that candidates from the country’s conservative base have suffered in these elections.

Progressive influencers (purple) – 11.38% of profiles | 13.33% of interactions
Group composed of progressive influencers who support Lula. Reminders about Bolsonaro’s actions in the pandemic, statements rejecting the president’s candidacy, and humorous posts about the outcome of the first round, as well as references to pop culture, shape the group’s atmosphere.

Young progressives (yellow) – 10.32% of profiles | 8.45% of interactions
Base formed by common profiles, mostly young women, who counter argue one of the biggest anti-PT claims: that Lula is a corrupt ex-convict. Whether by stating that Bolsonaro has also been arrested or by ironizing the arguments of the ruling base, this group demarcates a clear opposition to the president and consequently explicit support for Lula. The base also discusses aspects related to education, arguing that students from public universities should not support Bolsonaro.

Non-aligned anti-Bolsonarists (pink) – 9.47% of profiles | 8.85% of interactions
Composed of profiles of common users, the group criticizes the alleged inconsistency of voting for Lula for the Executive, but not electing politicians from his base of support for positions in the Legislative. Posts target attacks on Ciro, for his allegedly stubborn and unfriendly posture that would have hindered the election; on the occasion, the group campaigns for a useful vote for Lula in the second round.

Third way (green) – 3.26% of profiles | 2.96% of interactions
Group led by the third way candidates and supporters. The general tone is to criticize the left wing for the useful vote campaign and for “blaming” the third way for the second round of presidential candidates, an idea that dominated the debate among Ciro Gomes’ supporters. While Simone Tebet published a video thanking the voters, Ciro did not manifest himself on the network, and the repercussion about him was left to his supporters. In the graph, Tebet establishes greater points of contact with the left wing, while Ciro occupies a more isolated position.

 

Major tweets inside the groups in the map of interactions on Twitter
Period: from 4 p.m. on October 2 to 12 p.m. on October 3

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV

 

Presidential candidates on Twitter

Evolution of mentions to the presidential candidates on Twitter
Period: from 4 p.m. on October 2 to 12 p.m. on October 3

 

 

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV

 

• The beginning of the counting of the votes was marked by the growth in the volume of posts about the two leading names, Bolsonaro and Lula, with the peak of mentions of the candidates happening at 8 p.m., when the information was already circulating on the social networks that the PT candidate had passed the current president and won the top spot;
• Bolsonaro’s post celebrating the election in the first round of governors from his support base has gone viral. However, the current president’s name appears more strongly in critical messages, which state that he avoids socializing with the candidate’s supporters and praises the states where he was defeated;
• The moment when the counting started to show a majority of votes for Lula, surpassing Bolsonaro, who was leading at the beginning of the count, heated up the debate around the PT candidate. While supporters’ profiles began to confabulate about possibilities for the second round, critics insisted on the ex-president’s association with criminal organizations and the STF;
• The names of Tebet and Ciro appeared mostly in tweets that periodically updated the vote count numbers, with some posts already risking calculations about the migration of the votes that both received for the two candidates who will continue to run in the election. The MDB candidate is also praised for reinforcing the importance of candidates and parties expressing their support for the names that will run in the second round.

 

Main words of the debate about the presidential candidates on Twitter
Period: from 4 p.m. on October 2 to 12 p.m. on October 3

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV

 

• Posts that employed the hashtags #eleições2022 (Elections 2022) or #eleicao2022 (Election 2022) to update and comment on the vote counting numbers – both inside and outside the country – made up most of the debate about the election. When only 1% of the polls had been counted, calmness was urged in order to prevent hasty assessments;
• There is widespread recognition among his supporters that, for Lula to win, it is necessary to avoid disagreements with Tebet and Ciro voters in order to convince them to vote for the PT candidate and guarantee victory in the second round;
• The difference of six million votes between Lula and Bolsonaro in the outcome of the first round of voting has instilled a certain optimism among the PT’s voters. The immediate victory of Romeu Zema (Novo) in Minas Gerais – as well as the importance of re-election for Bolsonaro’s performance in the second round – has put the state in the sights of the current president’s supporters.

 

Evolution of topics in the election debate on Twitter
Period: from 4 p.m. on October 2 to 12 p.m. on October 3

 

Source: Twitter | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV

 

• Security and Health emerge as the main themes of the debate about elections on Twitter. On one side, the government support base raises the anti-corruption flag to criminalize Lula and the PT, calling the candidate an ex-convict and associating him with the PCC. On the other, the progressive field explicitly opposes Bolsonaro, recalling figures and speeches regarding the federal government’s management of the Covid-19 pandemic. Both groups do not understand the reasons why the opposition candidate has so much support. With similar peaks at the end of the vote count, the mobilization of these themes reflects a polarized scenario in which the rejection of Bolsonaro and Lula obtains a protagonist role;
• The dispute also generated clashes on the issue of education, with the governing base and the opposition groups accusing each other of “lack of schooling”. Here, the narrative is constituted in a heated way, with cursing and manifestations of xenophobia, with the Northeast being the main target;
• The mentions of the economy, on the other hand – a prominent theme during the electoral race – were mobilized in a slightly more lateral way, with criticism of the assistance policies of the Lula government. The Northeast, again, is highlighted negatively, being framed, by the Bolsonaro base, as a region that receives a lot of welfare assistance, but contributes little to the national GDP;
• In the environment, expectations for the future guide the debate, marked mainly by progressive groups. While the election of anti-environmentalists, such as Ricardo Salles, resonates as a critical warning for the socio-environmental agenda, the victory of indigenous people and activists at the polls maintains a certain tone of hope among the field, with the election of Sonia Guajajara standing out. Opposition to Bolsonaro also appears in this discussion, as it does in infrastructure, with negative data being used to challenge those who support the president.

 

News on Facebook

Top links about the presidential candidates on Facebook
Period: from 4 p.m. on October 2 to 12 p.m. on October 3

Source: Facebook | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV

 

Top profiles on Instagram

Profiles with the most engagement in the debate about the presidential candidates on Instagram
Period: from 4 p.m. on October 2 to 12 p.m. on October 3

Source: Instagram | Elaborated by: School of Communication, Media and Information at FGV